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The past months of this year have witnessed extraordinarily complicated market environments and particularly serious natural disasters. Facing challenges, agricultural authorities have responded according to decisions and instructions of the central government, and exerted all efforts to mitigate the impact and implement the national food production rise programme, striving to achieve the "Two Economic & Two Safety" Goals (more than 500 million tons in grain output and more than 7% in growth of farmers' income; no major epizootics and no major quality & safety issues for farm produce). Their efforts were bolstered by the effective leadership of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, and strong support by various local authorities. Consequently, success of the agricultural and economic development is consolidated in the rise of grain production and farmers' income, thus providing good support to inflation expectations management, people's livelihood and relatively rapid and steady economic growth.
A bumper autumn harvest is assured and the annual grain production is expected to grow for the eighth consecutive year. Currently, the autumn harvest has already started. According to real figures of harvests and expert' estimates in major production areas, there has been an increase for maize and middle-season rice in the number of ears per plant, the quantity of kernels/grains per ear and the average kernel/grain weight compared with last year. Late rice is growing well. Thanks to the expected growth in per unit yields of the autumn grain crops and expansion of the production area by over 9 million mu (600,000 ha.), an increase in the gain output for this autumn is assured. The outputs of summer grain crops and early rice have grown by 6.24 billion jin (3.12 million tons) and 2.85 billion jin (1.425 million tons) respectively. Together with the growth in autumn crops, grain output this year will likely be over 1.1 trillion jin (550 million tons), creating the eighth consecutive annual growth.
The grain production of 2011 has shown the following features: First, all three seasons of crops (summer grain crops, early rice and autumn grain crops) have witnessed growth in terms of output. Per unit yield and total output are likely to top the historical high. Second, the total production area has expanded steadily, with greater expansion of high-yield crops, namely rice and maize, than other crops. Third, increases have been achieved in nearly all regions while Northeastern China has experienced larger growth than other regions.
The animal husbandry sector is improved steadily, while fishery production remains stable. It is estimated that the production of meat, eggs and dairy products will all continue their growth trend in 2011. Currently, pig production is firmly bouncing back, with total pig and breeding sow inventories rising for 6 and 4 consecutive months respectively. As farmers are enthusiastic in refilling their inventories, the number of pigs delivered to slaughter houses will increase gradually as time passes, ensuring supply to the market.
Layer inventory has been growing, which will lead to a significant increase in layer production capacity for some time to come compared to last year.
Dairy production remains favorably stable, with a dairy cattle inventory of 184.100 heads in August, a rather high level in the past two years. Returns on dairy cattle farming have become higher.
Disaster relief measures of the fishery sector have been effective, greatly contributing to a solid production which stood at 29.4668 million tons from January to August, up by 1.92% than the same period last year.
Agricultural supply at the market is sufficient. There have been steady rises in the supply of major agricultural products, variety of non-staple food, and overall prices, while prices of few products have been more volatile.
Specifically, grain prices continue their modest rise. In August, according to the monitoring data of the MOA, the three staple grains (rice, wheat and corn) stood at 119.82 RMB per 50 kg on average, a month-on-month increase of 0.8% and year-on-year 10.5%. Pig prices have been bouncing back and are stabilizing at a high level. Pig to grain price ratio in August was 8.09:1. Though a little bit higher than the previous month's 8.08:1, it still falls in the green zone of 6:1 to 9:1. Cotton prices have recorded a slump for 5 months in a row. The prices of grade 328 cotton averaged at 19,329 RMB/ton in August, a month-on-month decline of 12.4% and an accumulative drop of 37.1%.
Agricultural trade witnessed a substantial increase. Trade volume from January to July totaled 84.17 billion USD, up by 28.9% than the same period last year, including 33.57 billion USD in export, which was 28.5% higher, and 50.6 billion USD in import, an increase of 29.2%. Trade deficit registered at 17.03 billion USD, up by 30.5% compared to the same period last year.
Quality and safety of agricultural products remain stable with improvements made, and major epizootic situation are under control. Monitoring results showed that 97.4% vegetables, 99.5% livestock products and 96.5% aquatic products have met the quality and safety standard in the first three quarters, leading forward the high record trend. As of September 15, no HPAI cases have been detected among poultry; neither have Asia I and A of FMD. Emerging type O of FMD was promptly stamped out and PRRS is under effective control.
The number of rural migrant labors has continued to grow, and farmers' income has risen rapidly. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, per capita cash income of rural residents has reached 3,706 RMB in the first half of this year, up by 20.4% year-on-year. Allowing for price increase, the real growth rate is 13.7%, 6.1 percentage points higher than that of urban residents. Meanwhile, stable growth has been achieved in state farm sector, village and township enterprises, agri-product processing and agro-mechanization, etc.
The good momentum in agricultural and rural economic development is attributable to the great commitment and leadership provided by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, to the huge effort and strong support by competent local departments, and to the hard work by agricultural technicians, grassroots officials and farmers. However, such achievements shall not lead to overlook of current challenges facing agriculture and rural economy, namely: continuing droughts in southwestern regions and heavy tasks in disaster prevention and reduction; soaring costs for some agricultural inputs, farming labor and agricultural production; and quality and safety risks of agro-products. Therefore, hard efforts must be made to maintain the strong development of agriculture and rural economy.
In future, agricultural departments will work harder to continue with the planning and implementation of policies that support agriculture and benefit farmers. Disaster prevention and reduction will be strengthened, while various measures for autumn and winter planting will be practiced to ensure production and supply of non-staple food. Moreover, technical guidance and service will be fostered and further efforts will be make to monitor and control agro-product quality and safety as well as major animal diseases, so as to promote steady increase in farmers' income and maintain robust agricultural and rural economic growth.
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